A friend sent me a link yesterday with the short description of “Intriguing…”

It was a link to Clay Shirky’s article Gin, Television, and Social Surplus and indeed it is an intriguing article where he sets out his initial thesis thus:

I was recently reminded of some reading I did in college, way back in the last century, by a British historian arguing that the critical technology, for the early phase of the industrial revolution, was gin.

The transformation from rural to urban life was so sudden, and so wrenching, that the only thing society could do to manage was to drink itself into a stupor for a generation. The stories from that era are amazing– there were gin pushcarts working their way through the streets of London.

It’s not a new theory, however I’m not entirely sure it’s completely accurate. Urban life is not a new invention: Rome at one point is reckoned to have had 1 million citizens, and Athens had 300,000 citizens before it. Whilst they both had their debauchery, nobody has ever suggested that Rome needed wine and orgies in order to function as a city.

His parallel starts to get more interesting however:

If I had to pick the critical technology for the 20th century, the bit of social lubricant without which the wheels would’ve come off the whole enterprise, I’d say it was the sitcom. Starting with the Second World War a whole series of things happened–rising GDP per capita, rising educational attainment, rising life expectancy and, critically, a rising number of people who were working five-day work weeks. For the first time, society forced onto an enormous number of its citizens the requirement to manage something they had never had to manage before–free time.

And what did we do with that free time? Well, mostly we spent it watching TV.

I’m not sure the “wheels would have come off”, but there is no doubt that even people on very poor incomes have more free time than people of similar economic standing would have had for many millenia - if ever.

He goes on to talk about this surplus of time as something useful, interesting and powerful. His first example however directly contradicts my thoughts around The Vision Thing:

And I’m willing to raise that to a general principle. It’s better to do something than to do nothing. Even lolcats, even cute pictures of kittens made even cuter with the addition of cute captions, hold out an invitation to participation. When you see a lolcat, one of the things it says to the viewer is, “If you have some sans-serif fonts on your computer, you can play this game, too.” And that’s message–I can do that, too–is a big change.

Actually, it’s a change, but it’s not one we should embrace unless we say it’s the thin end of the wedge. That eventually something useful and interesting is going to happen and society starts working on interesting things. Clay goes on to talk about how if even one slither of that time of staring at the flashing box in the corner is used to do something productive, it means something interesting is going to happen.

Let’s say that everything stays 99 percent the same, that people watch 99 percent as much television as they used to, but 1 percent of that is carved out for producing and for sharing. The Internet-connected population watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. That’s about five times the size of the annual U.S. consumption. One per cent of that is 10,000 Wikipedia projects per year worth of participation.

I think that’s going to be a big deal. Don’t you?

To an extent I agree. I don’t know what 10,000 Wikipedia projects per year is going to look like, but there is no doubt that something, somewhere is going to happen of interest.

But what are those 10,000 projects? Do we have the creative ability to do 10,000 useful things every year? Do we have the will to do something more interesting than throw sheep at each other or spending our entire time photoshopping memes? Time will tell.

Many years ago I did some freelance writing. Some of it was painfully dull (filler articles for free magazines), some of it bizarre and seedy (your suspicions about readers’ letters in porn mags are well-founded: they are sometimes written by paid writers), but the biggest lesson I got from it was that it’s hard to make a decent living with that as your main gig.

When you need to rely on artistic output to pay the rent, it doesn’t take you long to realise that unless you’re going to get picked up by a large publisher or music label, you’re going to need another job.

Recently I’ve been thinking about this problem and the related crisis in the music and film industries in some detail. At its simplest, the problem is this:

People want to consume entertainment, but they do not wish to pay for it.

Artists do not have the right to be paid whatever they feel they are worth, they must compete in a market and persuade people to hand over cash just like any other industry. Punitive measures such as taxing consumer products in order to force payment of artists is in my opinion pure idiocy. We need to think instead about encouraging people to pay for the entertainment they love. I think that requires a few things:

1. Consumers should not have to fork out more money than they feel comfortable spending
2. More of that money needs to land in the artist’s pockets rather than distributor’s, so that artists on the ‘long tail’ can make a living off a smaller fan base
3. Artists need to find new ways to grow and engage with their fan base

Thankfully, the Internet makes all of these much more practicable than ever before.

One solution to the first problem has recently been played out with mixed results by Radiohead, but wouldn’t it be interesting if we had some sort of “tip jar” system in place for all artists? You download something via P2P, like it, and you can make a donation - of whatever size you want - to the creator. Well somebody is working on that but the question is whether it will ever work.

One artist working with a non-digital medium (paintings) has given this a whirl and it seems to be working. Ali Spagnola will - when it’s your turn - paint a picture just for you based on a theme you suggest and then send it you free of charge anywhere in the World. It’s not a con. I know this, because I’m currently staring at this picture painted for me sometime last year. Payment is completely voluntary. I’m ashamed to admit I still haven’t got around to throwing some money into the tip jar, but I’ll rectify that mistake this week. The painting has grown on me. I would miss it if I lost it. Ali deserves to be able to eat for giving it to me.

Does Ali make money? Perhaps. Do Radiohead? Definitely. So, it’s a model with potential.

As for the distribution problem, well I think it’s clear now that the current relationship with artists and the distribution chain is going to die within a matter of years. A band or a writer can now distribute directly via their website, and even authors can publish books cost-effectively without the need to get men in suits and lawyers involved. There is an issue of how to manage all this and as Kevin Kelly discovered when researching this, being your own tour manager, promoter, lawyer and roadie can be a gruelling and unprofitable exercise.

And then we get to audience engagement. The Internet has blown that apart as well - artists can now have a direct conversation with their fan base via blogs, social networking websites and video sites. It doesn’t scale (how do you stay personal with fifty million fans in 150 countries?), but that would be as they say “a nice problem to have”. Most artists don’t know how to do this well - they’re musicians, writers and film directors, not PR specialists - which suggests there will exist a niche industry helping bands do this very cost effectively within a few years. The current promotion and PR industries are not a good fit for where the industry is heading, they need to change.

As for growing your fan base, I agree with Robert Rich’s words in his message to Kevin Kelly:

Companies can use demographic models and track people’s search patterns to pander to their initial tastes and to strengthen those tastes, rather than broaden their horizons. This problem doesn’t lie within the technology of the internet, but within the realities of capitalism and human psychology.

There is a problem here with collaborative filtering - it’s locking us into tastes, not broadening them. However, it can also be the most powerful tool an artist can have working for them.

Four months ago I had never heard of The Courteeners and yet last Saturday was in the crowd at their sell-out gig at Manchester Academy having paid several times face value for the tickets off eBay. That only happened because last.fm algorithmically said “you should listen to these guys, because you like James”. So far The Courteeners and their label, promoters and distributors have directly received at least £30 off me they would never have got without that technology helping them. I expect they will get hundreds off me over the next decade providing they keep doing something I like.

However, I’d like to share that music. I’d like to say to my friends “look, listen to this, you’ll like it” and give them a copy. DRM and the law prevents me. It is working against them, because I know for a fact I could recruit at least another half dozen fans for their next tour and album release. They are working against me by insisting I do not put their album up on a website for anybody to download and listen to. I will happily work as their unpaid promoter and recruit whoever I can into giving them money, but that little circled “C” prevents me. They could have licensed it under a creative commons license, but they chose not to.

This one act alone has probably cost them a couple of thousand pounds in future lost revenue just through me. Scale it up to the 2,000 people who were at that gig the other night, they’re probably losing millions. Not millions in five years when they try and break America: millions of pounds right now, this week.

So, we need to find more new ways to openly and cheaply distribute art and leverage a fan base so as to be able to make a decent living - perhaps even an indecent living - for artists and fans alike. I have more ideas on how to make that happen, but I will share those with you tomorrow.

One of the advantages of being almost 30 is that people less than a decade younger than you tend to think of you as being “wise”. Some of the staff in my local bar will ask me about everything from US politics, the Renaissance, Alan Turing, 1980s TV commercials and arcane facts about the early forms of Parliament. Cultured bunch, the staff in my local.

Last night however, it was my turn to learn. One of them had asked me last week about the phrase “Jumping the Shark” and where it had come from. Last night she told me the very next day after I’d explained it to her, she watched an episode of Scooby Doo (OK, maybe they’re not that cultured) where Scooby jumps a shark and that it had made more sense to her knowing what it was a reference to - it is one of the classic insider jokes within TV comedy. I then had to re-explain it all to the other people assembled. The conversation that followed was… interesting:

It went on in a similar vein for a few more minutes. More examples of the futility of the network, the silliness of the apps. Admittedly, none of them had left Facebook yet, but that might be that it’s rather hard to leave, as GeekUp and Co-working day regular Alan Burlison found out

These are people the social networks need. In their early 20s. University students. Bright, intelligent, aspirational. I have no doubt that within a decade most of them will be in the upper 25% of earners in the UK. Malcolm Gladwell would call them “sneezers” or something - they spread their likes and dislikes around their friends quickly. They set trends.

And in the last couple of months they have come to hate Facebook and MySpace.

Specifically, they hate that these networks have been opened up to people engaging in what is effectively a developed and sophisticated form of spam. They hate that they are being hassled via the social graph into doing “fun” things that are actually about as fun as receiving a hoax virus e-mail. They understand that their time and attention is important and its being wasted by sites that don’t respect that.

I have ideas for applications that will actually add value to the social graph and be of use to people in this group, but by the time I get to roll them out it could be too late - the people that make the platform interesting to me as a recruitment base for customers may have moved onto something else.

Facebook are adding features to improve the user experience as they learn how developers are gaming the system. They might win the battle in time, but ultimately they might have to give more control to users to block invites from apps that are not even remotely in their realm of interest.

This isn’t over yet. 2008 could easily be the year the social networks died.

Let’s imagine you are a toymaker. No, not some carpenter in a little workshop deep in Old Europe - a multinational that commissions studies on “pester-power” and are only slightly embarrassed by the fact some of your toys contain lead paint.

You have a trademark over a game, that quite frankly went out of fashion in the 1980s. Nobody wants to play it any more because it’s seen as dull, boring and just a little bit “fuddy”.

Then, one day, you notice sales are starting to rise. People are buying the game again. You can’t understand why, so you commission another report (hey, that’s your job) to find out where this new interest is coming from. A few months later, you have an answer - somebody has created an electronic copy of your game and made it available as an application in a social networking site. People are so crazy for it as a result, your brand is now gaining value and you’re going to have to think about how to cater for this new generation of players.

What do you do?

Well, if you’re Mattel or Hasbro and your games is Scrabble and the online app is Scrabulous on Facebook, you naturally send out cease & desist letters and hack off your new fan base.

The idiocy of this decision is monumental. Yes, you need to protect your trademark. Yes, you need to show that you’ve acted to protect it otherwise you can end up losing it anyway. Do they really think this is the way forward though?

I have to admit I’m a tad biased here. Here’s my Scrabulous stats screen:

As you can see, I’m one of those people who plays daily, and plays a lot. I’d hate to see it go. But that’s not why I’m writing about it here.

There is something new about the economy that is spreading around us. In the past ideas, trademarks, patents all were treated as if they had some inherent power that should not be discussed. People say they won’t discuss things because they need to be secret, that they fear the legal consequences. People don’t give up ideas until they’re “protected”. People guard words they invented as if they alone are the secret sauce to great riches.

Here’s the thing: that’s all bullshit now.

You want people to talk about your product, your ideas. You want them to talk, talk, talk, talk all day long. You want people to stand up and shout from the rooftops about your products, your patents, your trademarks. You want them to share their ideas of how your products could be made better. When they start doing that, especially when other people are providing them the tools to do it, you should think very carefully about whether you want to tell them to shut up.

No, not Common Gateway Interface (although that is a powerful and mighty beast that created a new economy), I mean Computer Generated Imagery. Specifically, the tricks a creative person can get up to with a few days in Normandy, a camera, some friends, and a truck load of software.

Watch:

See? Clever, no?

The title says it all, but “In Japan Half The Top Selling Books Are Written On Mobile Phones” over at TechCrunch is worth a ponder.

I don’t know anybody who buys ring tones or games, nor anybody who uses “chat to girls in your area” services or any other mobile content. Yet the market is huge. It’s predicted to top $44 billion by 2011 in Europe, and many analysts are predicting (much) bigger revenues than that. Operators are starting to win the battle on revenue share and the EU telcos who typically take up to 40% of the fees are beginning to move towards a more Japanese-like 9 to 11 percent.

In other words, there is a huge amount of cash in this business, and it’s one I know pretty much nothing about. This article is more of a question than an answer: who is buying this stuff? Where’s the growth coming from?

A few years from now, people new to the Internet will find it impossible to imagine an era before video online. What use is that content though, if your user is visually impaired? How do we go about indexing and searching it?

A few weeks ago IBM announced an “Accessibility Internet Browser for Multimedia” over at alphaWorks. It addresses the short-comings of JAWS or voice-enabled browsers, and is built on top to of the Eclipse Rich Client Platform as a stand-alone application. It means the play/pause buttons (normally unavailable to visually impaired users) are stripped out and made accessible, and that playback doesn’t ‘clash’ with voice-synthesised browser operation.

Developers can add metadata to reorganise or simplify the content, provide additional information, add special navigation or even provide audio descriptions for movies using XML metadata.

It’s this last point that I think is going to be interesting. If this tool - or one like it - becomes standard, and video producers are encouraged to mark-up their content properly, existing search and relationship algorithms can be applied to video content. Right now searching video content is pretty limited - maybe by making it accessible, we all benefit.

Whilst chowing down RSS feeds this morning, I found a post on a comic website worth sharing. OK, so it’s Penny Arcade and therefore a very good comic, but even so I find myself almost wanting to apologise. Tycho today put up a post from Joel DeYoung, a games industry type who shares his experiences of SquawkBox.

“The depth to which the virtual aviation enthusiast pursues this hobby depends entirely on how far down the rabbit hole they want to go. You could get a headset and fly short flights using your mouse and keyboard (a fact you should probably not tell your fellow pilots lest you be ridiculed for such unrealistic input devices). Or maybe you get a yoke and some pedals and build a little cockpit at your desk. Maybe you decide to make the leap into air traffic control and join one of VATSIM ís controller training regimens, hoping to pass the test and get certified. Perhaps you join a virtual airline flying long-hauls across the ocean, building your hours until you achieve the coveted rank of Captain. Or maybe you spend years searching for surplus Boeing parts to build a 737 cockpit in your garage, or elsewhere if the hydraulic motion platform requires a larger venue.

Safe, efficient air travel relies on a mountain of rules, procedures, international treaties and regulatory schemes. On VATSIM, they try to simulate them all. It may just look like a bunch of people flying and directing air traffic. But to make sure the whole operation runs smoothly, there are a ton of regulations, organizational hierarchy, committees, agreements and other schemes which effectively add up to a government bureaucracy sim. Maybe this sounds stale, but if you’re trying to be authentic you may as well go all the way.”

A few weeks ago I was browsing the magazines in a local WH Smiths (my local one being the one in the Arndale), and spotted a magazine dedicated to virtual pilots. Flicking through it I was astounded by how much enthusiasm there was for this - what I thought to be small - niche. I never even considered that people might want to spend their evenings pretending to be FAA or CAA regulators.

What fascinates me about this, is that people are creating whole new experiences, hierarchies, structures, organisations and rules around software. They are extracting from a simulator the ability to mimic real life.

I kind of get what the appeal is. I looked at working in ATC when I was still making my mind up as to what I wanted to do with my life as a teenager (bet you’ll be glad I didn’t go for it next time you get on a plane), and have done a few hours towards a PPL. This is like being able to do those things but without real consequence. The ability to do high-stress, technical jobs as entertainment is something extraordinary.

Then I had another thought. What if instead of ATC and Virtual Airlines the simulation was of something less life-critical though, and it wasn’t just a simulation? What if by engaging in a simulated gaming environment, people were able to actually get real World work completed, Mechanical Turk style?